COVID-19 triggered one of the worst jobs crises since the Great Depression. Compared with the months following the 2008 financial crisis, some countries experienced ten times fewer hours worked. The impacts of the lockdown measures have not been felt equally. Women and youth, over-represented in hard-hit industries like tourism and restaurants, have a particularly high risk of joblessness. Furthermore, as firms look to pandemic-proof their businesses, the adoption of labour-saving technologies is likely to accelerate. With lower-skilled and older individuals over-represented in jobs with a high risk of automation, there is a real risk that the crisis could increase poverty and widen inequalities even further. Countries should take necessary measures to prevent this from happening, and invest in a more inclusive and resilient labour market.

Extensive re-skilling efforts can support this transition. Many workers made redundant during the crisis may be unable to return to their previous jobs and will need to retrain in new skills or new occupations to be employable in the post-COVID-19 labour market. OECD research on adult learning systems has identified challenges in ensuring broad and inclusive participation in training opportunities. Adult training participation varies from over 50% of adults in top-performing countries like Denmark, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand and the Netherlands, to less than 25% in Greece, Italy, and Turkey. Data from the Priorities for Adult Learning dashboard show that 75% of employers across OECD countries provide training opportunities. However, only 40% of them provide training to more than 50% of their workforce. Older adults, the unemployed, those with lower skills and those with temporary contracts are less likely to receive training opportunities than their peers. Meeting the reskilling challenge presented by COVID-19 will require boosting investment in adult training, and a renewed effort to reach at-risk groups.

Online learning as part of the solution

Online learning can help to overcome the usual barriers to training by allowing learners to choose a time, rhythm and place compatible with work and family responsibilities. It may also be the only training option available in the coming months, since training institutions are returning to classroom instruction at different speeds. COVID-19 provided a powerful test of the potential of online learning. Much of the training initially planned for the classroom was delivered online during the pandemic, leading to an increase in e-learning. Public employment services collaborated with online training providers to rapidly retrain displaced workers. For instance, the Estonian public employment service, in cooperation with relevant stakeholders, quickly developed e-learning for care workers, in high demand during the crisis. In the United States, the Rapid Skilling programme helped displaced vocational and technical workers transition to in- demand occupations. Aimed at low-skilled adults, the online courses were competency-based, and curated into ultra-short programmes to deliver the minimal amount of training needed.

However, the crisis also highlighted crucial limitations of online learning. Equity issues emerged as those without sufficient digital skills or digital infrastructure were barred from online training opportunities. Training providers faced constraints in delivering traditional work- based learning online. Teachers accustomed to teaching in a classroom struggled. To support teachers, training providers in the UK Amazing Apprenticeship network built modules to increase confidence, retention and motivation to pursue online learning strategies. In Korea, the Ministry of Employment and Labor is planning to develop a curriculum to equip teachers and managers at training institutions with the skills needed to shift the training offer online. Lack of quality assurance remains a challenge to ensuring value for time and cost. The European Association of Distance Teaching Universities created a quality label for MOOCs tailored to both e-learning and open education. However, few quality assurance mechanisms are set up and no country has adopted one at the national level. Addressing these limitations should be a priority if online learning is to play a prominent role in the medium-term re-skilling effort.

Designing rapid retraining programmes for displaced workers

Rapid retraining efforts during the health crisis demonstrated ways to deliver fast and efficient retraining. The faster retraining could be delivered, the faster displaced workers could return to employment, while also helping to address skills shortages:

Rapid retraining was made easier and faster by targeting in-demand positions which required little specialised training. For instance, Partners in Health in Massachusetts (United States) trained 1 000 people in contact tracing: the process of identifying and isolating people infected with COVID-19 and their close contacts. The fundamentals of contact tracing could be covered in a six-hour online course.

Another promising approach was to target unemployed people who already had the necessary foundational skills to fill roles in essential sectors. For instance, Sweden offered a short medical training to laid- off staff in the airline industry, recognising that they were already accustomed to working in high-pressure situations and had necessary training in first aid, safety, basic communicable diseases and how to care for people. After a three-day online course and a short practical component, graduates were helping in hospitals by performing administrative tasks, cleaning and welcoming patients.

Effective career guidance, skills profiling tools and programmes for the recognition of prior learning will be essential going forward to ensure that training is efficiently focused on the jobseeker’s skill gaps. Some countries are already taking action on this. Australia’s Department for Education, Skills and Employment is encouraging workers affected by COVID-19 to consult its Skills Match online tool. The tool helps users to identify the skills they already have based on their previous work experience. It then presents new job ideas that use similar transferable skills.

A significant financial investment

Beyond the design of retraining programmes, the cost, and who should foot the bill remains a pressing concern. OECD research estimates that around 1% to 4.5% of GDP would be needed to retrain individuals from occupations at high-risk of automation (on average, 14% of the labour force) to those with a low risk (Andrieu et al., 2019 ). Given the private and public returns to training, sharing the cost between government, firms and individuals makes sense. Across OECD countries, financial instruments like tax incentives, levies, individual learning accounts, and training vouchers are used to promote cost-sharing.

Individual learning accounts (ILA) have garnered renewed interest in recent years. Unlike some other incentives, they are tied to the individual rather than to the employer, which in theory facilitates access to training for own account workers and those on part-time or temporary contracts. The portability feature also promises easier transitions from high-risk to low-risk occupations. But ILAs are relatively rare, and have not yet incited widespread participation in the countries where they have been implemented. Nor have they managed to bridge the training gap between low-skilled and high- skilled individuals. More generally, financial instruments like ILAs do not address the barrier of time constraints, which means that individuals would still pay the high opportunity costs of training. Paid training leave – available in a handful of countries like France and Belgium – is one way to compensate for the time spent away from work while training.

Designing recovery plans

The effects of COVID-19 will be felt in labour markets for years to come. As governments think about how to design recovery plans, re-skilling should be a top priority. It needs to be informed by high- quality information about skill and labour market needs. Career guidance, skills profiling tools and programmes for the recognition of prior learning can help to focus training efficiently on a jobseeker’s skill gaps. Online learning has the potential to reduce traditional barriers to training – like time, cost, and access – but its limitations need to be addressed before it can be mainstreamed. By harnessing the lessons learned during the health crisis, boosting investment in adult training, and renewing efforts to reach out to at-risk groups, countries can rebuild labour markets to be more inclusive and more resilient than before.

Sources

1. OECD (forthcoming), The potential of online learning for adults: lessons from the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Brief.
2. OECD (2020), Skill measures to mobilise the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Brief, (http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the-COVID-19-crisis-afd33a65/)
3. Andrieu, E., S. Jamet, L. Marcolin, M. Squicciarini (2019), Occupational Transitions : The Cost of Moving to A “Safe Haven”, OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/6d3f9bff-en
4. OECD (2019), Future-Ready Adult Learning Systems, Getting Skills Right, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264311756-en

This article is an extract taken from the Parliamentary Network publication ‘Just Transitions’. You can download a pdf version of the full document here.